As a Canadian-Ukrainian who recently attended a social work conference in Europe, I’m deeply concerned about strategic analyst Valerii Pekar’s latest warning https://www.facebook.com/valerii.pekar/posts/10225053309594586?ref=embed_post regarding Russia’s plans for Europe. Writing from his closed-door meetings with Polish and German specialists, Pekar’s analysis should alarm every democratic nation.
Pekar’s Core Warning
Ukrainian strategic analyst Valerii Pekar has been sharing intelligence for over a year in closed European meetings. His message is stark: Russia won’t wait for Europe to prepare for a Russian strike, and European assumptions about Russia attacking around 2030 are worthless—a Russian attack is quite probable before the end of this year.
The Hybrid Warfare Blueprint
According to Pekar’s analysis, Russia’s new doctrine involves “liminal warfare”—using sub-threshold methods where the opponent doesn’t understand what’s happening and can’t decide whether to respond. By the time a decision is made, it’s too late.
Pekar outlines a coordinated attack strategy combining:
- Massive missile-drone attacks on energy infrastructure
- Cyber attacks on government systems
- Navigation collapse through electronic warfare
- Sabotage and terrorist groups
- Social media manipulation
- Refugee flows as destabilization tools
The Domino Effect Strategy
The goal isn’t territorial conquest but systemic European collapse. A successful operation would cause weeks-long power outages, governmental collapse, and millions of refugees fleeing to Germany, causing governmental collapse there too, with the domino effect spreading to Brussels.
Evidence Already Emerging
Pekar notes that preparation is already underway: Recent arson attacks on military equipment in Germany and Belgium, massive power outages in Spain and Czech Republic, and fires on telecommunication networks in Poland—all of this is testing readiness and finding weak points.
The Rome Conference Connection
As the Ukraine Recovery Conference takes place in Rome, Pekar’s message resonates: Europe’s security is directly tied to Ukraine’s survival. Europe exists while Ukraine is part of it. The conference isn’t just about rebuilding—it’s about preventing the systematic destruction of European democracy.
A Canadian-Ukrainian Perspective
Having recently attended a social work conference in Austria, I’m struck by how interconnected our global challenges are. From a Canadian perspective, we cannot afford to view this as a distant European problem. What happens to European democracy affects us all.
Pekar’s warning, shared publicly after his colleague Michael Gonchar issued similar warnings, demands immediate attention. He notes that when he raised similar concerns in February 2022, he was accused of spreading panic—we know how that ended.
The Choice Before Us
The time for complacency has passed. As Pekar emphasizes, at least we will be prepared. The question is whether our leaders will act on this intelligence before it’s too late.
Europe’s democratic future—and by extension, the global democratic order—hangs in the balance. Ukraine’s resistance isn’t just defending Ukrainian territory; it’s defending the entire Western democratic framework.
The warning is clear. The question is whether we’ll heed it.
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